Trump s Stormy Return: Xi Jinping Faces the "Three T s" Curse

"Xi Jinping will inevitably face the difficult choice of continuing to deal with either Biden or Trump." (Getty Images/Dajiyuan Composite)

[People News] The 2024 U.S. presidential election has seen a powerful return of Donald Trump. His comeback has been met with global excitement and celebration. Trump expressed, “They told me there was a reason God spared my life.” His return is expected to strengthen America and accelerate the global shift towards traditional and conservative values.

The most restless person might be Xi Jinping. On November 4-5, while the world’s attention was focused on the U.S. election, Xi isolated himself by visiting Yunmeng Sleepy Tiger Qin Slips in Xiaogan, Hubei—perhaps trying to find solace in history amid diminishing power, or avoiding the impending Trump wave.

For the next four years or more, Xi and the CCP leadership in Zhongnanhai will likely be caught in the “Three T's” curse: Trump, tariffs, and Taiwan.

On November 6, after Trump secured 277 electoral votes and declared victory, noted journalist Akio Yaita posted on Facebook, “My first impression is that Xi Jinping is in trouble, and Taiwan is safer.”

Under Biden’s four years, the world saw a blend of hot and cold conflicts: a persistent U.S.-China cold war, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, and the heated Israel-Hamas conflict. The current chaos and uncertainty define international politics, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a critical geopolitical point influencing U.S.-China relations and global military-political balance. Amid Xi and the CCP's aggressive rhetoric about forcefully reunifying Taiwan, this region has seen one crisis after another. The "New Axis of Evil" comprising China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran engaged in a cat-and-mouse game with the U.S.

All of this is set for a dramatic reversal with the advent of Trump 2.0. During his first term, Trump’s policies left authoritarian regimes trembling, with the CCP fuming but helpless. Under Trump, the world was more peaceful, and nations operated normally, free from major conflicts.

Some analysts have expressed concern over Trump's recent statements about Taiwan's defense fees and his past compliments toward Xi. However, this underestimates Trump. The real concern lies with the CCP.

Xi must remember Trump’s unconventional approach during his first term, highlighted by the “Trump-Tsai call” in December 2016, when President-elect Trump took a congratulatory call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. The nearly ten-minute conversation defied diplomatic norms, angering Beijing. Trump saw making Beijing uncomfortable as beneficial.

In a panic, Xi used intermediaries like Henry Kissinger and then-ambassador Cui Tiankai to negotiate, eventually securing a dinner at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago in April 2017. But while Xi was pleased, Trump shocked him by announcing the launch of 59 Tomahawk missiles at Syria during their dinner, leaving Xi speechless.

Trump’s unpredictability was a major headache for Xi and the CCP. His first term saw significant arms sales to Taiwan and the signing of the Taiwan Travel Act in 2018, which Taiwan viewed as a substantial diplomatic breakthrough since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.

On November 7, Harvard professor Joseph Nye, known as the “father of soft power,” noted that Trump’s second term would likely involve continued U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and the “porcupine strategy” to help Taiwan deter China.

Trump’s administration could make Xi hesitate to touch Taiwan. His team, known for hawkish stances, and potential key figures like Mike Pompeo as Secretary of Defense, could mean Taiwan has little to fear.

What might pressure Xi most is Trump's tariff policy. Following the news of Trump’s victory, the yuan fell below the 7.2 mark, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2.2% on November 6. Many foreign investors in China are reconsidering their presence to avoid Trump's potential new tariffs.

With tariffs potentially reaching 60% or more, Beijing has limited options. To ease Trump's stance, China might need to shrink its trade surplus with the U.S. by significantly importing American goods. Alternatively, it could shift its manufacturing base, which would be a last resort. If Trump's tariffs are global, the CCP may have no viable path. Even a 60% tariff could cut China’s GDP by 2%. Citigroup analysts estimate that if Trump imposes a 60% tariff and China cannot reroute products through other countries, its economic growth could decline by 2.4%.

Massive stimulus policies could further devalue the yuan, accelerate capital flight, and, combined with weak domestic demand and overissued currency, push the economy into stagflation with no clear recovery in sight. The National People’s Congress has yet to present previously hyped stimulus policies, possibly because officials fear ineffective measures would jeopardize their positions.

When Biden won in 2020, Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon warned Beijing against expecting another friendly administration. The Biden administration maintained Trump’s tariffs and continued a tough dialogue with China, initiating a tech war and erecting “small yard, high fence” containment policies. Trump’s likely return to the White House could see deeper U.S.-China economic and technological decoupling. Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, believes Trump would enforce stricter tech suppression and possibly cancel China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR).

Whether Trump’s return will alter or halt the Indo-Pacific strategy remains uncertain. The framework was initially conceived by Trump’s deputy national security adviser, Matt Pottinger.

In November 2016, when Trump won the election, Pottinger authored the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy Framework, known as the “Bill’s document.” It noted that Asia’s 70 years of post-WWII peace and prosperity were supported by U.S. dominance, which was now threatened by China’s rise. Pottinger pointed out that while the U.S. focused on Middle East conflicts and economic recession for two decades, China’s economy grew fivefold. He asserted that China’s hemispheric ambitions were rooted in decades-old Party goals, accelerated by Xi. Pottinger argued that the U.S. had significant leverage to influence China’s trajectory and must strengthen the balance of power in Asia.

Pottinger’s framework later informed Trump’s 2017 National Security Strategy. Biden’s Indo-Pacific policies also followed this blueprint.

Regardless, with Trump’s return, nightmares for Xi and the CCP have just begun. 

First published by People News